Since I began sports handicapping nearly 11 years ago many reasons have become apparent to me as to why the majority of sports bettors lose. One reason proper sports betting is hard is because we as humans tend to let our emotions affect the games we bet and the amount we bet on each game from night to night. Many bettors can win 10 nights in a row and after the 11th night they are actually down money because they went on tilt and couldn’t handle a losing night. Hopefully, anyone reading this article has become aware of the fact that no matter which handicapper you use you will NEVER win every single night. Losing is a part of the game. Random variation is a part of everything in the universe and life. Who wouldn’t have taken the Reds a few months back when they were up 7 runs going into the 9th against the Braves. The Reds were the correct bet in the game. However, the Braves scored 8 runs in the bottom of the 9th to win the game. To put it simply: shit happens…
Over the next several months I will be discussing many of the key aspects that keep the majority of sports bettors from winning. However, let me advise you before reading any further. If you or your handicapper can’t pick above the 52.5 percent threshold that it takes to win then none of these articles will help you. The only thing it will accomplish in that situation is to help you lose slightly less money.
The first aspect that I would like to discuss is seasonal betting. Each year, many of my clients come on board for the NFL and NCAAF football season. We go through the 5 month football season and many of my clients are calling me up informing me how pleased they are with the service. “If only football season was longer!!” I hear each year.
However, the truth that I try to inform them of is that although we do well in the NFL and NCAAF any good handicapper could not possibly make nearly the amount of money in football as one could in baseball or basketball. Yes, I understand football is generally much more exciting to watch and bet. However, as a serious sports bettor that is irrelevent. The NFL and NCAAF seasons are around 5 months long including the playoffs. Each team only plays 1 game per week and each team also has a bye week without a game. In comparison, each team in MLB plays 152 games per year. They also have a 7 month season and tend to play on average 5 days per week.
If I am a profitable handicapper (which I am) then my advantage is obviously in baseball for several reasons. First off, since there are so many more games in MLB there will be more mistakes in the betting lines throughout the course of the year. Also, betting lines in baseball tend to be less accurate because the majority of people don’t even bet baseball. Did you know the only reason sportsbooks keep MLB lines is because they want you to play with them through football season???
Let’s do a quick analogy. Let’s say you bet 3 games in NCAAF on Saturday and 3 more games in the NFL on Sunday. That is a total of 6 games per week. An average MLB week will have 3 plays per day which equals a total of 21 games per week. Now, since the regular season football schedule is 17 weeks long we do the math:
17 (number of weeks in football season) x 6 (average number of plays per week) = 102 total games
now let’s look at the average number of MLB games per season
24 (number of weeks in MLB season) x 21 (average number of plays per week) = 504 total games
As demonstrated by the math above, we have almost 5 times the number of plays each year in MLB than in the NFL and NCAAF combined!!! Any reasonably intelligent individual would then understand that if a handicapper can truly profit then his obvious advantage would be in the MLB season when he has 5 times the number of plays to exploit his advantage against the books.
Most handicappers only promote football season because they know uneducated bettors will begin depositing money into their offshore betting accounts in hopes of finding a winner. What must be understood is that the majority of cappers do not care about winning to any extent, only that they take money from you and sell you picks they themselves would never bet.
If you really want to make serious money in sports betting get onboard for the 2nd half of the MLB season. It’s not too late to have a great MLB season and build your bankroll or simply take that extra vacation to Hawaii this year by simply placing a few bets each morning with a trusted handicapper.
Aloha!!!
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Colt James – Top 5% of MLB Cappers Worldwide
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